Uhuru remains man to beat in August, IPSOS survey shows

Uhuru remains man to beat in August, IPSOS survey shows


  • Survey by IPSOS Kenya reveals Head of State poised to retain seat
  • Results however show the country is headed for a run-off as none of the presidential candidates would attain the 50% plus one vote required to become president
  • Opposition leader Raila Odinga closest challenger to Uhuru with 30% of votes were elections held today

President Uhuru Kenyatta remains the candidate to beat in the August 8 presidential elections according to a survey released on Monday, February 20.

The survey conducted by research firm Ipsos Kenya shows the Head of State leads the pack of candidates who have expressed their interest in the presidency despite indications he might fail to amass the 50 per cent plus one vote needed to avoid a run-off.

President Kenyatta would garner 47% of votes were elections to be done today while his closest challenger Oppositon leader Raila Odinga would manage 30% of votes.

The results effectively mean that a second election would be required between the top two presidential candidates as Uhuru would fall short of the constitutional requirement for a first-round victory.

READ ALSO: President Uhuru’s love affair with checked shirts

The survey conducted between 9th and 26th January 2017 had a sample size of 2057 respondents randomly selected from the country’s urban and rural settings.

IPSOS Lead Researcher Tom Wolf was quick to point out that the findings of the survey were inconclusive as a lot could change between the period the survey was done and the August General Elections.

“We don’t know who the presidential candidates who will contest are yet especially from the Opposition coalition NASA/CORD,” he said.

IPSOS Lead Researcher Tom Wolf

The National Super Alliance (NASA) four co-principals – Raila Odinga (ODM), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) are this week expected to sign a coalition agreement that will front one of them to challenge the incumbent.

NASA principals from left: Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga (Photo: The East African)

Wolf also added that the survey did not limit respondents to registered voters only as the mass voter registration exercise began that concluded yesterday began a week after the start of the survey.

He clarified that the survey was devoid of political interference saying it was an in-house undertaking without party funding.

Uhuru’s strongholds are in Central, Rift Valley and North Eastern provinces while Raila would receive the lion’s share of votes in Nyanza, Coast and Western.

The president enjoys 63% confidence in respondents sampled while the former premier has 51% confidence level.

President Uhuru with FBI dancers at State House, Nairobi.

READ ALSO: Uhuru ratings drop in latest Ipsos survey

The survey comes hot on the heels of another one conducted by the same firm which showed that Kenyans would vote out 60% of their members of parliament.

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